Recent turmoil in Britain has been hotly debated world over about its impact on Britain, EU and the rest of the world. A lot has been said about the class divisions in the referendum and most analyst deploring the fact that ‘leave’ vote was dictated by the poor, uneducated and old people. It is also mentioned and debated that the same class divide may be seen in US election later this year. Even in other EU countries the emotions are building up of this non elite society which is pushing their countries towards seclusion from EU system. Does the vote of the ‘rest’ of this society indicate a society getting more dumb or plain stupid? Some analysts think so. But are we looking at a global phenomenon where the vote of this rest of the society will count more and more? Giving more shocks to the elite class sitting at the helm of affairs and claiming to make this world better for all. This elite class sitting in Washington, London, Brussels, Paris, and Central Delhi and even in Beijing is probably being suspected of serving their own agenda rather than agenda of the world’s unprivileged, poor and uneducated lot who have been waiting for years to the privileged lot to deliver on their promises but without any real progress. And obviously they are in majority. In Britain and probably in forthcoming US elections are we likely to see the rise of this rest.
It is hotly debated that never in the history of US, electorate was as divided as it is likely to be now. Rise of Donald Trump seems to be the result of this rise of the rest. And this phenomenon is likely to catch up all over the world. The Brexit incident has been attributed to not the economics but the so called xenophobia and impulse. So are we to judge that the choice of British poor and uneducated older lot is a bad choice because it is not based on economics or is it that the rest of the class is fed up with the elite so much that emotions plays an important role than the economics. The rest of the class is so desperate with the non performance of the elites that they are willing to keep the economics at the back burner and ready to dominate an agenda which is perceived to serve them better at any economic cost. If it is happening in two of the world’s politically most powerful countries it is likely to spread to many other countries too. The rest of the world seems to be losing faith in the elite class who is sitting at high offices of political, economic and academic importance. Beijing’s suggestion to Chinese population of the bad consequences of democracy and Britain type referendum seems to the uneasiness of the same elite class with this situation. However this storm if assumes momentum is not likely to stop with the established rules and norms based on economics and meritocracy.
However the rise of the rest and their decisions can’t be judged to be related to emotions only. The phenomenon seems to be having an economic angle also. Recent conclusions with respect to a large wealth of the world shrinking in the hands of a few hundred families and increasing gap between the rich and the poor may be triggering this phenomenon which has its roots in economic shifts to ‘haves’ rather than ‘have-nots’. Therefore it will be wrong to conclude that vote of poor, uneducated and older people do not have a foresight or economics at its core. Recent developments however do have their major origins in an expression of loss of faith in the elite’s claim to common good by their knowledge and position. Therefore this change may be coming in future to wider geographical areas of this planet. This may be an important historical change to the process of political democracy and demographical distribution of economic power. And will be an important turning point in the recent history of mankind.
“Leave as soon as possible” tells EU chiefs to UK as soon as it emerged that a majority of Britons feel it is good to exit an expensive organisation like EU, the one which forces UK to accomodate more migrants than its emigrants. It is not an emotional outburst of EU chiefs coming out of frustration of a big brother deciding to leave the 28 nations, comparatively more successful regional economic block. It makes more business sense for EU to get rid of this10th biggest net contributor (net contribution around 13 Bilion pound).
In order to understand the situation better, one need to go back to the formation of EU itself in 1972. Before EU was established most experts had concurred that an EU makes an economic sense if it is a congregation of equals. But that condition was never met. The result has been that EU has remained an unbalanced ship sailing throughout its history. The Greece crisis made it very clear to all the members, that some weaker members were enjoying the economic cooperation at the expense of citizens of some core members, having spending like those members. So already EU had been a tilted ship. Brexit is a sure reducer of such a tilt albeit to a smaller extent in short run, but has the potential to accelerate the process to make EU more and more balanced in the long run. A variable geometry of EU, for example, is a possibility now, comprising of a core of strong members with loose outer layer of member countries ‘in the making’. Or something similar which is now possible. EU chiefs have already placed their strong calls for introspection and feel confident of a better EU.
Brexit is not about economics, it is about xenophobia and outcome of this is going to be catastrophic for Britain. Scotland has voted for a ‘remain’ vote and is feeling it undemocratic for UK to bring it out of EU. There is a possibility of second referendum soon for independence from UK. This outcome will be there for everybody to see, including the populist separatist movements against EU, building up in other EU member states. Looking at these adverse consequences for UK after exit, there is a strong possibility of such forces lowering their voices, at least for some time. Meanwhile, EU chiefs have realized that EU citizens on the street are not against the idea of EU, it is only that they want another kind of EU. What is this kind of EU, would be found sooner than one thinks and this would be necessary for the survival EU and to move forward to become a more sustainable economic union.
Contrary to popular view, Brexit is likely to bring Germany and France closer, after Germany has lost its most closer trade ally. Germany will be forced to look at trade relations with other EU members more closely. US is likely to extend the special relationship to EU without UK, the relationship which it traditionally had with UK. It will be in the interest of US to negotiate business and other ties with a larger block in Europe than a small fragmented economically weaker UK.
Finally, it is up to Brussels to find its new avatar as soon as possible and to not only make it expensive for other members to leave but cheaper for then to remain in EU. For example, EU can run its affairs by opening associate memberships to many other outsider states and earning some extra money from such memberships.
I.T.S, Ghaziabad has now announced a 3-days Management Development Program (for working executives) on Export Procedure & Documentation -‘Step By Step Approach’ scheduled to be held in the Institute’s Campus in Mohan Nagar, Ghaziabad during June 21st –23rd , 2016 (Tuesday–Thursday) (Timings 10.00 AM to 5.00 PM daily) under the Program Directorship of Dr. Vijesh Jain.
The program will primarily focus on the topics such as Getting Started in International Trading- Formalities, Methods and Procedure; Market & Product Selection globally; Export Promotion Measures and provisions under Foreign Trade Policy 2015-20;Understanding Export Import Documents; Managing Pre- Shipment and Post Shipment Finance; Methods of Realizing Export Payments and Ensuring Guaranteed Export Payments; Credit Risk Management & Role of ECGC; UCP 600 & Letter of Credit; Currency Risk Management in International Trade; International Commercial Practices and INCOTERMS 2010; Central Excise Clearance Formalities for Exports; Customs Regulations and Clearance Formalities for Exports & Imports; Duty Drawback – Claims Methods and Procedure. The cost for participation for this 3 days (non – residential MDP is INR 10,000/- per participant. For more details on the program download the information brochure and registration cum nomination form here